Malacateco vs Aurora preview
In the match between Malacateco and Aurora, the 1X2 probabilities show Malacateco at 50%, while Aurora is at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Malacateco has an expected goals figure of 1.67 compared to Aurora's 1.06.
Both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, recent form shows Malacateco with mixed results, winning 3 of their last 6, while Aurora has won 4 of their last 6. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making the match less predictable than the numbers suggest.
Malacateco vs Aurora: model vs market
| Source | Malacateco | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.07.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Malacateco and Aurora expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.73
- Attack rating (Malacateco / Aurora)
- 0.87 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Malacateco / Aurora)
- 0.96 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Malacateco vs Aurora score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Malacateco goals. Columns: Aurora goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Malacateco vs Aurora goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Malacateco vs Aurora
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malacateco | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Aurora | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Malacateco or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Aurora) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Malacateco win by 2+ | 28% | 3.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Malacateco and Aurora recent form
Malacateco
3W 0D 3L
Aurora
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Malacateco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-1
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 8
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aurora away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-6
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Malacateco at home only, Aurora away only.
Malacateco vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Malacateco 2 · draws 1 · Aurora 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Aurora | 1-0 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-23 | Malacateco | 1-1 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-01 | Aurora | 1-0 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-10 | Aurora | 2-1 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-07 | Malacateco | 1-0 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-09 | Malacateco | 1-0 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-07 | Aurora | 1-0 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 17 fixtures
- Cobán Imperial v Suchitepéquez — match page 2026-10-28
- Municipal vs Comunicaciones 2026-10-29
- Mixco vs Xelajú — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Antigua GFC vs Deportivo San Pedro 2026-10-30
- Marquense v Guastatoya — match page 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Malacateco, previous: Deportivo San Pedro – Malacateco, 2026-10-25
- Aurora, previous: Suchitepéquez vs Aurora prediction