Mixco vs Municipal preview
In the Guatemala Liga Nacional fixture, Mixco faces Municipal with a 40% probability for Mixco to win, while Municipal has a 33% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Mixco, which occurs at a 9% likelihood. The match could see Over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 59%, indicating potential attacking play.
Mixco's expected goals stand at 1.51, slightly higher than Municipal's 1.34. Recent form shows Mixco with two draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Municipal has two wins in their last six. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Mixco vs Municipal: model vs market
| Source | Mixco | Draw | Municipal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mixco and Municipal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Mixco / Municipal)
- 1.20 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Mixco / Municipal)
- 1.35 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mixco vs Municipal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mixco goals. Columns: Municipal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mixco vs Municipal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mixco vs Municipal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mixco | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Municipal | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| No | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mixco or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Municipal) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mixco win by 2+ | 20% | 4.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mixco and Municipal recent form
Mixco
2W 2D 2L
Municipal
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mixco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
Municipal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mixco at home only, Municipal away only.
Mixco vs Municipal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Mixco 2 · draws 2 · Municipal 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Municipal | 2-0 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-10 | Municipal | 5-0 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-06 | Mixco | 0-2 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-26 | Municipal | 3-0 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-04 | Mixco | 1-0 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-09 | Mixco | 1-0 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-04 | Municipal | 3-1 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-05-04 | Municipal | 4-0 | Mixco | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-05-01 | Mixco | 0-0 | Municipal | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-13 | Mixco | 1-1 | Municipal | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Guastatoya vs Aurora — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Comunicaciones v Suchitepéquez — match page 2026-10-05
Before and after this match
- Mixco, previous: Mixco vs Cobán Imperial: odds and pick
- Mixco, next: Guastatoya vs Mixco: odds and pick
- Municipal, previous: Municipal v Guastatoya analysis
- Municipal, next: Xelajú vs Municipal prediction