Municipal vs Guastatoya preview
Municipal has a 65% chance to win against Guastatoya, who has just a 13% chance, making this a strong pick for a 1X2 bet. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% probability. However, Municipal's recent form shows inconsistency with 2 draws in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance.
Guastatoya comes into this match with better recent form, winning 4 of their last 6 games. The expected goals suggest Municipal will score 1.86, while Guastatoya is expected to net only 0.68. With 47% for Over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, there are factors that could lead to a different outcome than anticipated.
Municipal vs Guastatoya: model vs market
| Source | Municipal | Draw | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Published | 65% | 23% | 13% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.68.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Municipal vs Guastatoya odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Municipal, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal | 1.42 | 1.40 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.10 | +0.15 |
| Guastatoya | 6.79 | 7.08 | +0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Municipal and Guastatoya expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Municipal / Guastatoya)
- 1.16 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Municipal / Guastatoya)
- 0.76 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Municipal vs Guastatoya score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Municipal goals. Columns: Guastatoya goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Municipal vs Guastatoya goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Municipal vs Guastatoya
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Guastatoya | 13% | 7.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Municipal or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Guastatoya) | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Municipal and Guastatoya recent form
Municipal
2W 3D 1L
Guastatoya
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Municipal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-0
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.43
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Guastatoya away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Municipal at home only, Guastatoya away only.
Municipal vs Guastatoya head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Municipal 8 · draws 1 · Guastatoya 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Guastatoya | 1-0 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-03 | Municipal | 2-0 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-01 | Guastatoya | 0-1 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-22 | Guastatoya | 1-1 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-31 | Municipal | 2-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-27 | Municipal | 3-0 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-14 | Guastatoya | 0-3 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-17 | Municipal | 1-0 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-12 | Guastatoya | 0-2 | Municipal | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-10-24 | Guastatoya | 1-2 | Municipal | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro 2026-10-18
- Mixco vs Cobán Imperial — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Marquense v Suchitepéquez — match page 2026-10-19
- Antigua GFC vs Xelajú 2026-10-20
- Malacateco v Comunicaciones — match page 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Municipal, previous: Cobán Imperial v Municipal analysis
- Municipal, next: Mixco – Municipal, 2026-10-21
- Guastatoya, previous: Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC prediction
- Guastatoya, next: Guastatoya vs Mixco: odds and pick