Marquense vs Suchitepéquez preview
In the fixture between Marquense and Suchitepéquez, the 1X2 probabilities show Marquense at 66%, suggesting a strong likelihood of their victory. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.24 for Marquense compared to just 0.74 for Suchitepéquez.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Suchitepéquez manages to improve their recent form, which includes 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. Additionally, with a 47% chance for both teams to score, there is potential for a more competitive game than the numbers suggest.
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez: model vs market
| Source | Marquense | Draw | Suchitepéquez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Published | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Edge | +7% | -4% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Marquense below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Marquense, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marquense | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.90 | -0.05 |
| Suchitepéquez | 7.25 | 7.00 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Marquense and Suchitepéquez expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Marquense / Suchitepéquez)
- 0.87 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Marquense / Suchitepéquez)
- 0.90 / 1.57
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marquense goals. Columns: Suchitepéquez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marquense vs Suchitepéquez
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marquense | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Suchitepéquez | 12% | 8.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marquense or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Suchitepéquez) | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marquense win by 2+ | 48% | 2.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Marquense and Suchitepéquez recent form
Marquense
2W 3D 1L
Suchitepéquez
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Marquense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Suchitepéquez away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-7
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 2.71
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Marquense at home only, Suchitepéquez away only.
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Marquense 5 · draws 1 · Suchitepéquez 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Suchitepéquez | 1-2 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2024-05-19 | Suchitepéquez | 3-2 | Marquense | Primera Division |
| 2024-05-13 | Marquense | 1-0 | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division |
| 2024-03-07 | Marquense | 3-0 | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division |
| 2024-01-22 | Suchitepéquez | 2-0 | Marquense | Primera Division |
| 2023-11-08 | Marquense | 2-1 | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division |
| 2023-09-14 | Suchitepéquez | 2-1 | Marquense | Primera Division |
| 2023-03-19 | Marquense | 3-3 | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division |
| 2023-01-22 | Suchitepéquez | 3-0 | Marquense | Primera Division |
| 2022-10-06 | Marquense | 3-0 | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro 2026-10-18
- Mixco vs Cobán Imperial — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Municipal vs Guastatoya — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Antigua GFC vs Xelajú 2026-10-20
- Malacateco v Comunicaciones — match page 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Marquense, previous: Marquense vs Mixco prediction
- Suchitepéquez, previous: Suchitepéquez – Deportivo San Pedro, 2026-10-16