Marquense vs Mixco preview
In the match between Marquense and Mixco, the 1X2 probabilities show Marquense at 58% to win, while Mixco stands at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance of occurring. Marquense's expected goals are 1.83, compared to Mixco's 0.91, indicating a potential advantage for Marquense.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Marquense has a mixed record with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Mixco has 2 wins and 3 losses in the same span. Both teams to score sits at 51%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 52%, suggesting that while Marquense is favored, Mixco's previous head-to-head success could lead to an unexpected result.
Marquense vs Mixco: model vs market
| Source | Marquense | Draw | Mixco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Marquense and Mixco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Marquense / Mixco)
- 0.86 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Marquense / Mixco)
- 0.96 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marquense vs Mixco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marquense goals. Columns: Mixco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marquense vs Mixco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marquense vs Mixco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marquense | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Mixco | 17% | 5.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marquense or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Mixco) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marquense win by 2+ | 34% | 2.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Marquense and Mixco recent form
Marquense
3W 1D 2L
Mixco
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Marquense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Mixco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Marquense at home only, Mixco away only.
Marquense vs Mixco head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Marquense 1 · draws 0 · Mixco 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Mixco | 1-0 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-07 | Mixco | 2-1 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-20 | Marquense | 2-1 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-16 | Marquense | 1-2 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-12 | Mixco | 1-0 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Comunicaciones v Aurora — match page 2026-10-14
- Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Xelajú vs Malacateco 2026-10-15
- Cobán Imperial vs Municipal 2026-10-15
- Suchitepéquez vs Deportivo San Pedro — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Marquense, previous: Municipal – Marquense, 2026-10-11
- Mixco, previous: Suchitepéquez v Mixco analysis