Xelajú vs Malacateco preview
In the match between Xelajú and Malacateco, the 1X2 probabilities show Xelajú at 78% to win, while Malacateco is at just 7%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Xelajú's expected goals of 2.60 compared to Malacateco's 0.68.
However, there are factors that could affect the outcome. Both teams to score stands at 46%, indicating a chance that Malacateco could find the net. Additionally, Xelajú's recent form includes two draws, which suggests they may not be as dominant as their statistics imply.
Xelajú vs Malacateco: model vs market
| Source | Xelajú | Draw | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.68.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Xelajú and Malacateco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Xelajú / Malacateco)
- 1.47 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Xelajú / Malacateco)
- 1.00 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Xelajú vs Malacateco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Xelajú goals. Columns: Malacateco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Xelajú vs Malacateco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Xelajú vs Malacateco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 78% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.50 | |
| Malacateco | 7% | 14.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Xelajú or draw) | 93% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Malacateco) | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win by 2+ | 57% | 1.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Xelajú and Malacateco recent form
Xelajú
2W 2D 2L
Malacateco
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Xelajú at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Malacateco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Xelajú at home only, Malacateco away only.
Xelajú vs Malacateco head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Xelajú 3 · draws 1 · Malacateco 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Malacateco | 2-2 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-06 | Xelajú | 1-0 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-19 | Malacateco | 1-0 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-29 | Xelajú | 3-0 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-07-20 | Malacateco | 0-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Comunicaciones v Aurora — match page 2026-10-14
- Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Marquense v Mixco — match page 2026-10-15
- Cobán Imperial vs Municipal 2026-10-15
- Suchitepéquez vs Deportivo San Pedro — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Xelajú, previous: Aurora v Xelajú analysis
- Malacateco, previous: Malacateco vs Guastatoya prediction