Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC preview
In the match between Guastatoya and Antigua GFC, the 1X2 probabilities show Guastatoya at 72% and Antigua GFC at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, reflecting Guastatoya's strong expected goals of 2.67 compared to Antigua GFC's 0.99.
However, recent form reveals a contrast; Guastatoya has 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Antigua GFC has 4 losses and 2 wins. This discrepancy could affect the outcome, especially since Antigua GFC has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters. Additionally, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 71% and both teams to score at 59%, these figures could change based on the teams' performances on the day.
Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC: model vs market
| Source | Guastatoya | Draw | Antigua GFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Guastatoya and Antigua GFC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.52
- Attack rating (Guastatoya / Antigua GFC)
- 1.21 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Guastatoya / Antigua GFC)
- 0.91 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guastatoya goals. Columns: Antigua GFC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.76 | |
| Antigua GFC | 11% | 9.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guastatoya or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Antigua GFC) | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win by 2+ | 51% | 1.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Guastatoya and Antigua GFC recent form
Guastatoya
5W 1D 0L
Antigua GFC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guastatoya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Antigua GFC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guastatoya at home only, Antigua GFC away only.
Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Guastatoya 1 · draws 0 · Antigua GFC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Antigua GFC | 2-0 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-16 | Guastatoya | 3-0 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-25 | Antigua GFC | 2-0 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-09 | Guastatoya | 0-3 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-07 | Antigua GFC | 3-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Comunicaciones v Aurora — match page 2026-10-14
- Marquense v Mixco — match page 2026-10-15
- Xelajú vs Malacateco 2026-10-15
- Cobán Imperial vs Municipal 2026-10-15
- Suchitepéquez vs Deportivo San Pedro — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Guastatoya, previous: Malacateco vs Guastatoya prediction
- Antigua GFC, previous: Antigua GFC vs Cobán Imperial: odds and pick