Antigua GFC vs Xelajú preview
In the match between Antigua GFC and Xelajú, the 1X2 probabilities show Antigua GFC at 54% and Xelajú at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% chance. With expected goals of 2.19 for Antigua GFC and 1.45 for Xelajú, there's a strong indication of a high-scoring game.
The model suggests a 70% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance for both teams to score. However, recent form shows Antigua GFC with two losses in their last five matches, while Xelajú has also struggled, winning only two of their last five. This inconsistency could impact the outcome of the match.
Antigua GFC vs Xelajú: model vs market
| Source | Antigua GFC | Draw | Xelajú |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.42.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Antigua GFC and Xelajú expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Antigua GFC / Xelajú)
- 1.17 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Antigua GFC / Xelajú)
- 1.18 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Antigua GFC vs Xelajú score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Antigua GFC goals. Columns: Xelajú goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Antigua GFC vs Xelajú goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Antigua GFC vs Xelajú
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antigua GFC | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Xelajú | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Antigua GFC or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Xelajú) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Antigua GFC win by 2+ | 28% | 3.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Antigua GFC and Xelajú recent form
Antigua GFC
1W 2D 3L
Xelajú
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Antigua GFC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-0
- Win rate
- 86%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Xelajú away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Antigua GFC at home only, Xelajú away only.
Antigua GFC vs Xelajú head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Antigua GFC 4 · draws 2 · Xelajú 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Xelajú | 4-0 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-15 | Xelajú | 1-1 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-26 | Antigua GFC | 1-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-12 | Antigua GFC | 2-0 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-09 | Xelajú | 1-0 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-06 | Antigua GFC | 2-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-07-25 | Xelajú | 0-2 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-03-09 | Antigua GFC | 1-0 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-01-24 | Xelajú | 5-1 | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-12-09 | Xelajú | 1-0 | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro 2026-10-18
- Mixco vs Cobán Imperial — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Municipal vs Guastatoya — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Marquense v Suchitepéquez — match page 2026-10-19
- Malacateco v Comunicaciones — match page 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Antigua GFC, previous: Guastatoya vs Antigua GFC prediction
- Antigua GFC, next: Comunicaciones v Antigua GFC analysis
- Xelajú, previous: Xelajú – Malacateco, 2026-10-15
- Xelajú, next: Xelajú vs Municipal prediction