Updated

Guatemala Liga Nacional · Matchday 15

Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro

· Estadio Guillermo Slowing, Amatitlan

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Aurora to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AuroraDrawDeportivo San Pedro

Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAuroraDrawDeportivo San Pedro
Model55%26%20%
Market46%33%21%
Published48%31%21%
Edge+8%-7%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.97.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Aurora below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aurora, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 1.94Now 1.94 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aurora1.941.94+0.00
Draw2.752.75+0.00
Deportivo San Pedro4.294.29+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aurora and Deportivo San Pedro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Aurora
0.97Deportivo San Pedro
Total expected goals
2.72
Attack rating (Aurora / Deportivo San Pedro)
1.18 / 0.94
Defence rating (Aurora / Deportivo San Pedro)
1.20 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 5.3% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1 10.4% 12.3% 5.4% 1.8% 0.5% 2 10.1% 9.8% 4.7% 1.5% 0.5% 3 5.9% 5.7% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 3.8% 3.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Aurora goals. Columns: Deportivo San Pedro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aurora48%2.07
Draw31%3.22
Deportivo San Pedro21%4.84
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.04
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.91
No48%2.10
Double chance1X (Aurora or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Deportivo San Pedro)52%1.93
Handicap -1Aurora win by 2+31%3.21
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aurora and Deportivo San Pedro recent form

Aurora 3W 0D 3L
Deportivo San Pedro 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aurora at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-2
Win rate
71%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo San Pedro away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.29
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aurora at home only, Deportivo San Pedro away only.

Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Aurora 0 · draws 0 · Deportivo San Pedro 1.

AuroraDrawsDeportivo San Pedro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-16Deportivo San Pedro2-1AuroraGuatemala Liga Nacional

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match