Génesis vs Real Espana preview
In the match between Génesis and Real Espana, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Espana at 51%, while Génesis is at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Real Espana's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Génesis has lost 5 of their last 6 games.
The model predicts a 57% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score. However, if Génesis can improve their performance and secure a better result at home, these predictions could be challenged. The expected goals are 1.17 for Génesis and 1.81 for Real Espana, indicating a potential struggle for the home side.
Génesis vs Real Espana: model vs market
| Source | Génesis | Draw | Real Espana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Génesis and Real Espana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Génesis / Real Espana)
- 0.93 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Génesis / Real Espana)
- 1.10 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Génesis vs Real Espana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Génesis goals. Columns: Real Espana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Génesis vs Real Espana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Génesis vs Real Espana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Génesis | 24% | 4.21 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Real Espana | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Génesis or draw) | 49% | 2.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Espana) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Espana win by 2+ | 29% | 3.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Génesis and Real Espana recent form
Génesis
0W 1D 5L
Real Espana
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Génesis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Espana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Génesis at home only, Real Espana away only.
Génesis vs Real Espana head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Génesis 1 · draws 4 · Real Espana 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Real Espana | 2-0 | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-19 | Real Espana | 2-1 | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-28 | Génesis | 1-2 | Real Espana | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-27 | Real Espana | 1-0 | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-15 | Génesis | 1-1 | Real Espana | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-03-06 | Génesis | 2-0 | Real Espana | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-01-19 | Real Espana | 1-1 | Génesis | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-12-07 | Real Espana | 2-0 | Génesis | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-12-05 | Génesis | 1-1 | Real Espana | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-10-27 | Génesis | 1-1 | Real Espana | Liga Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Génesis, previous: Lobos Upnfm v Génesis analysis
- Génesis, next: Platense FC vs Génesis prediction
- Real Espana, previous: Real Espana vs Juticalpa: odds and pick
- Real Espana, next: Atletico Independiente – Real Espana, 2026-11-08