Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm preview
Olancho faces Lobos Upnfm with a 42% chance of winning compared to 29% for both a draw and Lobos Upnfm. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Olancho's expected goals of 1.41 against Lobos Upnfm's 1.13.
Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, Olancho's recent form shows 3 draws in their last 5 matches, which could hinder their ability to secure a win. Meanwhile, Lobos Upnfm comes in with strong recent performances, winning 4 of their last 5 games, which may impact the outcome.
Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm: model vs market
| Source | Olancho | Draw | Lobos Upnfm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Olancho and Lobos Upnfm expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Olancho / Lobos Upnfm)
- 1.02 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Olancho / Lobos Upnfm)
- 0.87 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Olancho goals. Columns: Lobos Upnfm goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olancho | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Lobos Upnfm | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Olancho or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Lobos Upnfm) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Olancho win by 2+ | 21% | 4.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Olancho and Lobos Upnfm recent form
Olancho
1W 4D 1L
Lobos Upnfm
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Olancho at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lobos Upnfm away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Olancho at home only, Lobos Upnfm away only.
Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Olancho 3 · draws 5 · Lobos Upnfm 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Lobos Upnfm | 1-1 | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-24 | Lobos Upnfm | 2-1 | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-02 | Olancho | 1-1 | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-08 | Olancho | 1-1 | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-10 | Lobos Upnfm | 1-1 | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-28 | Olancho | 3-2 | Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-22 | Lobos Upnfm | 1-1 | Olancho | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-10-05 | Olancho | 4-0 | Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-08-03 | Lobos Upnfm | 1-0 | Olancho | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-04-06 | Lobos Upnfm | 0-1 | Olancho | Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua 2026-11-04
- CD Olimpia v Juticalpa — match page 2026-11-05
- Génesis vs Real Espana — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente 2026-11-05
- CD Marathon v Platense FC — match page 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Olancho, previous: Olancho – Platense FC, 2026-11-02
- Olancho, next: CD Olimpia vs Olancho: odds and pick
- Lobos Upnfm, previous: Lobos Upnfm v Génesis analysis
- Lobos Upnfm, next: Lobos Upnfm v CD Motagua analysis