Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente preview
In the match between Atlético Choloma and Atletico Independiente, the 1X2 probabilities show Atlético Choloma at 52%, while Atletico Independiente stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 50% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score.
Atlético Choloma's expected goals are 1.67 compared to Atletico Independiente's 0.99, indicating a stronger attacking performance. However, recent form reveals Atlético Choloma has L-W-W-L-W-L results, while Atletico Independiente has L-D-L-D-L-W. This inconsistency could impact the final outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the predicted scoreline.
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente: model vs market
| Source | Atlético Choloma | Draw | Atletico Independiente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atlético Choloma and Atletico Independiente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Atlético Choloma / Atletico Independiente)
- 0.83 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Atlético Choloma / Atletico Independiente)
- 1.01 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlético Choloma goals. Columns: Atletico Independiente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Choloma | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Atletico Independiente | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlético Choloma or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Independiente) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlético Choloma win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlético Choloma and Atletico Independiente recent form
Atlético Choloma
3W 0D 3L
Atletico Independiente
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlético Choloma at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
Atletico Independiente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlético Choloma at home only, Atletico Independiente away only.
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atlético Choloma 0 · draws 0 · Atletico Independiente 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Atletico Independiente | 2-1 | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua 2026-11-04
- CD Olimpia v Juticalpa — match page 2026-11-05
- Génesis vs Real Espana — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- CD Marathon v Platense FC — match page 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Atlético Choloma, previous: Atlético Choloma vs CD Olimpia prediction
- Atlético Choloma, next: CD Marathon v Atlético Choloma analysis
- Atletico Independiente, previous: Estrella Roja – Atletico Independiente, 2026-10-31
- Atletico Independiente, next: Atletico Independiente – Real Espana, 2026-11-08