Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua preview
In the fixture between Estrella Roja and CD Motagua, the 1X2 probabilities show CD Motagua at 51%, while Estrella Roja sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance. CD Motagua's recent form includes four wins in their last six matches, while Estrella Roja has two wins in the same period.
The expected goals indicate Estrella Roja at 1.04 and CD Motagua at 1.66, suggesting a potential edge for the visitors. Both teams to score stands at 53%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 51%. Factors like a sudden change in form or unexpected injuries could affect these predictions.
Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua: model vs market
| Source | Estrella Roja | Draw | CD Motagua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 27% | 51% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 23% | 27% | 51% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Estrella Roja and CD Motagua expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.70
- Attack rating (Estrella Roja / CD Motagua)
- 1.20 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Estrella Roja / CD Motagua)
- 1.21 / 0.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estrella Roja goals. Columns: CD Motagua goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrella Roja | 23% | 4.43 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| CD Motagua | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estrella Roja or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or CD Motagua) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Estrella Roja and CD Motagua recent form
Estrella Roja
2W 2D 2L
CD Motagua
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estrella Roja at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
CD Motagua away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estrella Roja at home only, CD Motagua away only.
Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Estrella Roja 1 · draws 0 · CD Motagua 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | CD Motagua | 0-2 | Estrella Roja | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- CD Olimpia v Juticalpa — match page 2026-11-05
- Génesis vs Real Espana — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente 2026-11-05
- CD Marathon v Platense FC — match page 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Estrella Roja, previous: Estrella Roja – Atletico Independiente, 2026-10-31
- Estrella Roja, next: Juticalpa – Estrella Roja, 2026-11-07
- CD Motagua, previous: CD Motagua v CD Marathon analysis
- CD Motagua, next: Lobos Upnfm v CD Motagua analysis