Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma preview
In the match between Juticalpa and Atlético Choloma, the 1X2 probabilities show Juticalpa at 39%, Atlético Choloma at 33%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% chance. Juticalpa has an expected goals figure of 1.24, while Atlético Choloma stands at 1.44, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a 55% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 50%. Recent form shows Juticalpa with two wins in their last six matches, while Atlético Choloma has two wins in the same period. This could affect the outcome, as Juticalpa has historically performed well against Atlético Choloma, winning 2 out of their last 4 encounters.
Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma: model vs market
| Source | Juticalpa | Draw | Atlético Choloma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | -7% | 0% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juticalpa, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juticalpa | 2.17 | 2.35 | +0.19 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.22 | -0.08 |
| Atlético Choloma | 2.94 | 2.61 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Juticalpa and Atlético Choloma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Juticalpa / Atlético Choloma)
- 0.82 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Juticalpa / Atlético Choloma)
- 1.38 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Juticalpa goals. Columns: Atlético Choloma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juticalpa | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Atlético Choloma | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Juticalpa or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlético Choloma) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juticalpa win by 2+ | 14% | 7.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Juticalpa and Atlético Choloma recent form
Juticalpa
2W 0D 4L
Atlético Choloma
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Juticalpa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Atlético Choloma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Juticalpa at home only, Atlético Choloma away only.
Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Juticalpa 2 · draws 2 · Atlético Choloma 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Atlético Choloma | 1-1 | Juticalpa | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-24 | Juticalpa | 1-0 | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-25 | Atlético Choloma | 2-2 | Juticalpa | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-17 | Juticalpa | 3-2 | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
- CD Marathon vs Olancho — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- CD Olimpia vs Real Espana 2026-10-16
- Platense FC v CD Motagua — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm 2026-10-18
- Génesis v Estrella Roja — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Juticalpa, previous: Platense FC – Juticalpa, 2026-10-09
- Atlético Choloma, previous: CD Motagua v Atlético Choloma analysis