Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm preview
Atletico Independiente has a 37% chance to win against Lobos Upnfm, who have a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% probability. Atletico Independiente's expected goals stand at 1.07, while Lobos Upnfm's is 0.92.
Both teams to score has a 41% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 32%. Recent form shows Atletico Independiente with a record of L-W-D-L-D-D, while Lobos Upnfm has D-W-W-L-L-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions. A draw is also a possibility with a 33% chance, which could impact the outcome of the match.
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Independiente | Draw | Lobos Upnfm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 34% | 28% |
| Market | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Published | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Edge | +6% | +4% | -10% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lobos Upnfm, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Independiente | 2.38 | 2.83 | +0.45 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.04 | -0.22 |
| Lobos Upnfm | 2.55 | 2.35 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Independiente and Lobos Upnfm expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.96
- Attack rating (Atletico Independiente / Lobos Upnfm)
- 0.76 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Atletico Independiente / Lobos Upnfm)
- 1.01 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Independiente goals. Columns: Lobos Upnfm goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Independiente | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Lobos Upnfm | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.50 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Independiente or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Lobos Upnfm) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lobos Upnfm win by 2+ | 10% | 9.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Independiente and Lobos Upnfm recent form
Atletico Independiente
1W 3D 2L
Lobos Upnfm
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Independiente at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lobos Upnfm away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Independiente at home only, Lobos Upnfm away only.
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
- CD Marathon vs Olancho — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- CD Olimpia vs Real Espana 2026-10-16
- Platense FC v CD Motagua — match page 2026-10-17
- Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Génesis v Estrella Roja — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Atletico Independiente, previous: Olancho v Atletico Independiente analysis
- Lobos Upnfm, previous: Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon prediction