Génesis vs Estrella Roja preview
In the match between Génesis and Estrella Roja, the 1X2 probabilities show Génesis at 51%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. Estrella Roja's chances sit at 22%, indicating a potential edge for the home side. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as Génesis has recorded L-D-L-W-L-D, while Estrella Roja has L-L-D-L-D-W.
The expected goals suggest Génesis at 1.63 and Estrella Roja at 0.86, supporting the prediction of a low-scoring game. With Over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 48%, there remains a possibility for surprises. If Estrella Roja can improve their form, they might challenge Génesis more than expected.
Génesis vs Estrella Roja: model vs market
| Source | Génesis | Draw | Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.86.
- The market prices Génesis below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Génesis vs Estrella Roja odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Génesis, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Génesis | 1.82 | 1.82 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.29 | 3.29 | +0.00 |
| Estrella Roja | 3.92 | 3.92 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Génesis and Estrella Roja expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Génesis / Estrella Roja)
- 0.85 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Génesis / Estrella Roja)
- 0.72 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Génesis vs Estrella Roja score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Génesis goals. Columns: Estrella Roja goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Génesis vs Estrella Roja goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Génesis vs Estrella Roja
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Génesis | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Estrella Roja | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Génesis or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Estrella Roja) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Génesis win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Génesis and Estrella Roja recent form
Génesis
1W 2D 3L
Estrella Roja
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Génesis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estrella Roja away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Génesis at home only, Estrella Roja away only.
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
- CD Marathon vs Olancho — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- CD Olimpia vs Real Espana 2026-10-16
- Platense FC v CD Motagua — match page 2026-10-17
- Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Génesis, previous: Génesis vs CD Olimpia: odds and pick
- Estrella Roja, previous: Estrella Roja – Real Espana, 2026-10-11
- Estrella Roja, next: Olancho vs Estrella Roja: odds and pick