Olancho vs Estrella Roja preview
In the fixture between Olancho and Estrella Roja, the 1X2 probabilities show Olancho at 44%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. Estrella Roja has a lower probability of winning at 26%. Olancho's expected goals are 1.35, while Estrella Roja's are 0.97, indicating a potential advantage for Olancho.
However, both teams to score stands at 47%, suggesting that Estrella Roja could find the net despite their recent form of L-L-D-L-D-W. Olancho's recent performances include four draws and two losses, which could impact their ability to secure a win. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Olancho vs Estrella Roja: model vs market
| Source | Olancho | Draw | Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.97.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Olancho and Estrella Roja expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Olancho / Estrella Roja)
- 0.70 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Olancho / Estrella Roja)
- 0.81 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Olancho vs Estrella Roja score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Olancho goals. Columns: Estrella Roja goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Olancho vs Estrella Roja goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Olancho vs Estrella Roja
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olancho | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Estrella Roja | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Olancho or draw) | 74% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Estrella Roja) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Olancho win by 2+ | 22% | 4.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Olancho and Estrella Roja recent form
Olancho
0W 4D 2L
Estrella Roja
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Olancho at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estrella Roja away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Olancho at home only, Estrella Roja away only.
Olancho vs Estrella Roja head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Olancho 1 · draws 0 · Estrella Roja 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Estrella Roja | 0-1 | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Before and after this match
- Olancho, previous: CD Marathon – Olancho, 2026-10-15
- Estrella Roja, previous: Génesis v Estrella Roja analysis