Updated

Honduras Liga Nacional · Apertura - 11

Real Espana vs Platense FC

Full time4 – 3

Alin prediction was Real Espana to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real EspanaDrawPlatense FC

Real Espana vs Platense FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal EspanaDrawPlatense FC
Model69%21%10%
Market68%20%12%
Published68%20%12%
Edge0%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.63.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Espana vs Platense FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Espana, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-24.

Opened 1.29Now 1.35 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Espana1.291.35+0.06
Draw4.824.53-0.30
Platense FC8.557.50-1.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Espana and Platense FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.01Real Espana
0.63Platense FC
Total expected goals
2.64
Attack rating (Real Espana / Platense FC)
1.01 / 0.73
Defence rating (Real Espana / Platense FC)
0.68 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Espana vs Platense FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 3.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1 13.4% 10.0% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.4% 9.1% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 3 9.6% 6.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 7.6% 4.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Real Espana goals. Columns: Platense FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Espana vs Platense FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Espana vs Platense FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Espana68%1.47
Draw20%4.89
Platense FC12%8.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.04
Under 2.551%1.97
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.41
No58%1.71
Double chance1X (Real Espana or draw)88%1.13
12 (either side)80%1.26
X2 (draw or Platense FC)32%3.12
Handicap -1Real Espana win by 2+44%2.26
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Espana and Platense FC recent form

Real Espana 4W 1D 1L
Platense FC 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Espana at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.40
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Platense FC away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Espana at home only, Platense FC away only.

Real Espana vs Platense FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Espana 6 · draws 2 · Platense FC 2.

Real EspanaDrawsPlatense FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-01Platense FC0-3Real EspanaHonduras Liga Nacional
2026-04-22Real Espana2-0Platense FCHonduras Liga Nacional
2026-03-02Platense FC2-2Real EspanaHonduras Liga Nacional
2025-10-06Real Espana2-1Platense FCHonduras Liga Nacional
2025-07-26Platense FC2-1Real EspanaHonduras Liga Nacional
2022-03-20Real Espana3-2Platense FCLiga Nacional
2022-01-23Platense FC2-1Real EspanaLiga Nacional
2021-10-17Real Espana2-1Platense FCLiga Nacional
2021-08-15Platense FC0-2Real EspanaLiga Nacional
2021-04-07Platense FC2-2Real EspanaLiga Nacional

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

Before and after this match