CD Motagua vs Juticalpa preview
In the fixture between CD Motagua and Juticalpa, the 1X2 probabilities show CD Motagua at 69%, with Juticalpa at 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which occurs 13% of the time according to our model. CD Motagua's expected goals stand at 2.10, while Juticalpa's is significantly lower at 0.69.
CD Motagua is in strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Juticalpa has struggled, winning only 1 of their last 5. The model suggests a 53% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. However, if Juticalpa manages to improve their attacking play, they could challenge the expected outcome.
CD Motagua vs Juticalpa: model vs market
| Source | CD Motagua | Draw | Juticalpa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Published | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
CD Motagua and Juticalpa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (CD Motagua / Juticalpa)
- 1.00 / 0.81
- Defence rating (CD Motagua / Juticalpa)
- 0.67 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CD Motagua vs Juticalpa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CD Motagua goals. Columns: Juticalpa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CD Motagua vs Juticalpa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CD Motagua vs Juticalpa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Motagua | 71% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.50 | |
| Juticalpa | 11% | 8.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CD Motagua or draw) | 89% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Juticalpa) | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win by 2+ | 45% | 2.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CD Motagua and Juticalpa recent form
CD Motagua
4W 1D 1L
Juticalpa
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CD Motagua at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juticalpa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: CD Motagua at home only, Juticalpa away only.
CD Motagua vs Juticalpa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: CD Motagua 9 · draws 1 · Juticalpa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Juticalpa | 0-3 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-19 | CD Motagua | 2-1 | Juticalpa | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-25 | Juticalpa | 1-2 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-07 | Juticalpa | 1-7 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-21 | CD Motagua | 0-0 | Juticalpa | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-13 | CD Motagua | 5-1 | Juticalpa | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-12 | Juticalpa | 0-3 | CD Motagua | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-11-24 | Juticalpa | 1-3 | CD Motagua | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-09-18 | CD Motagua | 3-0 | Juticalpa | Liga Nacional |
| 2019-04-21 | Juticalpa | 2-3 | CD Motagua | Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
- Olancho vs Estrella Roja — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atlético Choloma vs Génesis 2026-10-24
- Real Espana v Platense FC — match page 2026-10-24
- Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lobos Upnfm v CD Olimpia — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- CD Motagua, previous: Platense FC vs CD Motagua: odds and pick
- Juticalpa, previous: Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma prediction