CD Motagua vs CD Marathon preview
In the match between CD Motagua and CD Marathon, the 1X2 probabilities show CD Motagua at 42%, a draw at 33%, and CD Marathon at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with expected goals of 1.15 for CD Motagua and 0.82 for CD Marathon.
However, the recent form indicates some unpredictability. CD Motagua has a record of W-W-W-L-W-D, while CD Marathon shows D-W-D-L-W-W. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 40%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 32%. These figures suggest that while Motagua may have the edge, Marathon's recent performances could lead to a different outcome.
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon: model vs market
| Source | CD Motagua | Draw | CD Marathon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 33% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 33% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CD Motagua and CD Marathon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.97
- Attack rating (CD Motagua / CD Marathon)
- 1.04 / 1.08
- Defence rating (CD Motagua / CD Marathon)
- 0.59 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CD Motagua goals. Columns: CD Marathon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CD Motagua vs CD Marathon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Motagua | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.01 | |
| CD Marathon | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.52 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CD Motagua or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or CD Marathon) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win by 2+ | 18% | 5.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CD Motagua and CD Marathon recent form
CD Motagua
4W 1D 1L
CD Marathon
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CD Motagua at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Marathon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CD Motagua at home only, CD Marathon away only.
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: CD Motagua 0 · draws 4 · CD Marathon 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | CD Motagua | 0-0 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-22 | CD Marathon | 1-1 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-10 | CD Marathon | 1-0 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-15 | CD Motagua | 1-1 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-25 | CD Marathon | 1-0 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-18 | CD Motagua | 3-3 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis 2026-10-31
- Real Espana v Juticalpa — match page 2026-10-31
- Atlético Choloma vs CD Olimpia — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Olancho vs Platense FC 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- CD Motagua, previous: CD Motagua vs Juticalpa: odds and pick
- CD Marathon, previous: Atletico Independiente v CD Marathon analysis