Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente preview
In the match between Estrella Roja and Atletico Independiente, the 1X2 probabilities show Estrella Roja at 57%, while Atletico Independiente sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Estrella Roja has an expected goals figure of 2.03 compared to Atletico Independiente's 1.13, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Estrella Roja has a record of D-W-L-L-D-L, while Atletico Independiente has L-D-L-W-D-L in their last matches. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 61% and both teams to score at 60%, suggesting a potentially high-scoring game, but inconsistencies in form may lead to unexpected results.
Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente: model vs market
| Source | Estrella Roja | Draw | Atletico Independiente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.26.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Estrella Roja and Atletico Independiente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Estrella Roja / Atletico Independiente)
- 1.11 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Estrella Roja / Atletico Independiente)
- 1.28 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estrella Roja goals. Columns: Atletico Independiente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrella Roja | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Atletico Independiente | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estrella Roja or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Independiente) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrella Roja win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Estrella Roja and Atletico Independiente recent form
Estrella Roja
1W 2D 3L
Atletico Independiente
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estrella Roja at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Atletico Independiente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estrella Roja at home only, Atletico Independiente away only.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis 2026-10-31
- Real Espana v Juticalpa — match page 2026-10-31
- Atlético Choloma vs CD Olimpia — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Estrella Roja, previous: Olancho vs Estrella Roja: odds and pick
- Atletico Independiente, previous: Atletico Independiente v CD Marathon analysis