Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis preview
Lobos Upnfm has a 44% chance to win against Génesis, who has a 24% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.24 for Lobos Upnfm and 0.84 for Génesis. With recent form showing Lobos Upnfm at W-D-W-W-L-L and Génesis at L-L-L-D-L-W, Lobos Upnfm appears to have the upper hand.
However, the prediction could be affected if Génesis improves their performance, as they have a 42% chance of both teams scoring. Additionally, the possibility of Over 2.5 goals stands at 34%, indicating that a high-scoring match is less likely. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis: model vs market
| Source | Lobos Upnfm | Draw | Génesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 32% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 32% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lobos Upnfm and Génesis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.08
- Attack rating (Lobos Upnfm / Génesis)
- 0.88 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Lobos Upnfm / Génesis)
- 0.81 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lobos Upnfm goals. Columns: Génesis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lobos Upnfm | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Génesis | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.40 |
| No | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lobos Upnfm or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Génesis) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lobos Upnfm win by 2+ | 20% | 4.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lobos Upnfm and Génesis recent form
Lobos Upnfm
3W 1D 2L
Génesis
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lobos Upnfm at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Génesis away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lobos Upnfm at home only, Génesis away only.
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lobos Upnfm 3 · draws 0 · Génesis 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Lobos Upnfm | 0-1 | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-02 | Génesis | 0-2 | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-27 | Génesis | 2-3 | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-07-23 | Lobos Upnfm | 2-1 | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Lobos Upnfm, previous: Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia prediction
- Génesis, previous: Atlético Choloma vs Génesis prediction