Updated

Honduras Liga Nacional · Apertura - 11

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia

· Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca

Alin prediction CD Olimpia to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Lobos UpnfmDrawCD Olimpia
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.96.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — CD Olimpia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Lobos Upnfm4.50 Draw3.60 CD Olimpia1.77

Price as of

Expected return at 1.77: -9.7% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 7 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia preview

In the fixture between Lobos Upnfm and CD Olimpia, the 1X2 probabilities show CD Olimpia at 47%, while Lobos Upnfm stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance according to our model. CD Olimpia's expected goals are 1.43 compared to Lobos Upnfm's 0.96, indicating a stronger attacking performance.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Lobos Upnfm improves their recent form, which includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 48%, suggesting that Lobos Upnfm could find the net despite their lower scoring average. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLobos UpnfmDrawCD Olimpia
Model24%29%47%
Market22%26%52%
Published22%27%51%
Edge+1%+1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.77, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Lobos Upnfm and CD Olimpia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96Lobos Upnfm
1.43CD Olimpia
Total expected goals
2.39
Attack rating (Lobos Upnfm / CD Olimpia)
0.89 / 1.37
Defence rating (Lobos Upnfm / CD Olimpia)
0.81 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 11.9% 9.4% 4.5% 2.2% 1 7.5% 13.8% 9.0% 4.3% 2.1% 2 4.2% 6.0% 4.3% 2.1% 1.0% 3 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Lobos Upnfm goals. Columns: CD Olimpia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lobos Upnfm22%4.51
Draw27%3.74
CD Olimpia51%1.96
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.34
Under 2.557%1.75
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.08
No52%1.93
Double chance1X (Lobos Upnfm or draw)49%2.04
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or CD Olimpia)78%1.29
Handicap -1CD Olimpia win by 2+24%4.24
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Lobos Upnfm and CD Olimpia recent form

Lobos Upnfm 3W 1D 2L
CD Olimpia 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lobos Upnfm at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CD Olimpia away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lobos Upnfm at home only, CD Olimpia away only.

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Lobos Upnfm 1 · draws 1 · CD Olimpia 8.

Lobos UpnfmDrawsCD Olimpia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-03CD Olimpia2-0Lobos UpnfmHonduras Liga Nacional
2026-04-02CD Olimpia0-0Lobos UpnfmHonduras Liga Nacional
2026-02-07Lobos Upnfm0-1CD OlimpiaHonduras Liga Nacional
2025-10-05Lobos Upnfm1-2CD OlimpiaHonduras Liga Nacional
2025-07-27CD Olimpia2-0Lobos UpnfmHonduras Liga Nacional
2025-03-06CD Olimpia2-0Lobos UpnfmLiga Nacional
2025-01-18Lobos Upnfm0-1CD OlimpiaLiga Nacional
2024-11-10Lobos Upnfm0-2CD OlimpiaLiga Nacional
2024-09-14CD Olimpia3-1Lobos UpnfmLiga Nacional
2024-04-25Lobos Upnfm1-0CD OlimpiaLiga Nacional

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot CD Olimpia to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on CD Olimpia
Our pick: CD Olimpia to win 18+ Bet Now