Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Independiente | Draw | CD Marathon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 27% | 58% |
| Market | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| Published | 17% | 25% | 57% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CD Marathon, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Independiente | 4.43 | 5.00 | +0.57 |
| Draw | 3.57 | 3.70 | +0.13 |
| CD Marathon | 1.67 | 1.60 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Independiente and CD Marathon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Atletico Independiente / CD Marathon)
- 0.68 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Atletico Independiente / CD Marathon)
- 1.19 / 0.65
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Independiente goals. Columns: CD Marathon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Independiente | 17% | 5.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| CD Marathon | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.47 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Independiente or draw) | 43% | 2.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or CD Marathon) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Marathon win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atletico Independiente and CD Marathon recent form
Atletico Independiente
1W 2D 3L
CD Marathon
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Independiente at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Marathon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Independiente at home only, CD Marathon away only.
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico Independiente 0 · draws 0 · CD Marathon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | CD Marathon | 1-0 | Atletico Independiente | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
- Olancho vs Estrella Roja — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atlético Choloma vs Génesis 2026-10-24
- Real Espana v Platense FC — match page 2026-10-24
- CD Motagua vs Juticalpa 2026-10-25
- Lobos Upnfm v CD Olimpia — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Atletico Independiente, previous: Atletico Independiente – Lobos Upnfm, 2026-10-18
- Atletico Independiente, next: Estrella Roja – Atletico Independiente, 2026-10-31
- CD Marathon, previous: CD Marathon – Olancho, 2026-10-15