Updated

Honduras Liga Nacional · Apertura - 11

Atlético Choloma vs Génesis

· Estadio Ruben Deras

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Génesis to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atlético CholomaDrawGénesis

Atlético Choloma vs Génesis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtlético CholomaDrawGénesis
Model36%33%31%
Market34%27%39%
Published35%28%37%
Edge0%+1%-2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atlético Choloma vs Génesis odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Génesis, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-24.

Opened 2.29Now 2.29 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atlético Choloma2.642.62-0.02
Draw3.293.30+0.01
Génesis2.292.29+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atlético Choloma and Génesis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.09Atlético Choloma
0.99Génesis
Total expected goals
2.08
Attack rating (Atlético Choloma / Génesis)
0.89 / 0.82
Defence rating (Atlético Choloma / Génesis)
0.94 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atlético Choloma vs Génesis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.9% 11.1% 6.2% 2.0% 0.6% 1 12.3% 14.8% 6.7% 2.2% 0.7% 2 7.4% 7.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 3 2.7% 2.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Atlético Choloma goals. Columns: Génesis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atlético Choloma vs Génesis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atlético Choloma vs Génesis

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atlético Choloma35%2.89
Draw28%3.51
Génesis37%2.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.91
Under 2.566%1.52
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.33
No57%1.75
Double chance1X (Atlético Choloma or draw)63%1.59
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Génesis)65%1.53
Handicap -1Génesis win by 2+12%8.27
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atlético Choloma and Génesis recent form

Atlético Choloma 2W 1D 3L
Génesis 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atlético Choloma at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

Génesis away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atlético Choloma at home only, Génesis away only.

Atlético Choloma vs Génesis head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Atlético Choloma 1 · draws 1 · Génesis 3.

Atlético CholomaDrawsGénesis
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-01Génesis2-0Atlético CholomaHonduras Liga Nacional
2026-03-25Atlético Choloma1-2GénesisHonduras Liga Nacional
2026-02-01Génesis0-0Atlético CholomaHonduras Liga Nacional
2025-11-02Génesis1-0Atlético CholomaHonduras Liga Nacional
2025-08-24Atlético Choloma2-1GénesisHonduras Liga Nacional

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

Before and after this match