Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba preview
Fagiano Okayama faces JEF United Chiba in the Emperor Cup, with a 59% probability for Okayama to win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which reflects Okayama's expected goals of 2.59 compared to Chiba's 0.61.
However, the match could go differently if Chiba improves their recent form, which includes only one win in their last six matches. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 43%, indicating that Chiba may struggle to find the net. With a confidence grade of C, the predictions blend model probabilities with market odds, highlighting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba: model vs market
| Source | Fagiano Okayama | Draw | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | +26% | -10% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fagiano Okayama below the model: +26.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fagiano Okayama and JEF United Chiba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Fagiano Okayama / JEF United Chiba)
- 1.02 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Fagiano Okayama / JEF United Chiba)
- 0.78 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fagiano Okayama goals. Columns: JEF United Chiba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 59% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | |
| JEF United Chiba | 18% | 5.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fagiano Okayama or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or JEF United Chiba) | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fagiano Okayama win by 2+ | 58% | 1.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fagiano Okayama and JEF United Chiba recent form
Fagiano Okayama
4W 0D 2L
JEF United Chiba
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fagiano Okayama at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Fagiano Okayama at home only, JEF United Chiba away only.
Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fagiano Okayama 2 · draws 3 · JEF United Chiba 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | JEF United Chiba | 1-2 | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| 2024-08-10 | Fagiano Okayama | 0-0 | JEF United Chiba | J2 League |
| 2024-06-01 | JEF United Chiba | 2-1 | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| 2023-10-01 | Fagiano Okayama | 0-5 | JEF United Chiba | J2 League |
| 2023-03-25 | JEF United Chiba | 1-1 | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| 2022-07-30 | Fagiano Okayama | 1-1 | JEF United Chiba | J2 League |
| 2022-05-08 | JEF United Chiba | 1-0 | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| 2021-12-05 | Fagiano Okayama | 1-3 | JEF United Chiba | J2 League |
| 2021-05-09 | JEF United Chiba | 4-2 | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| 2020-11-01 | Fagiano Okayama | 3-2 | JEF United Chiba | J2 League |
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