Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki preview
Sanfrecce Hiroshima faces Iwaki in the Emperor Cup with a strong 75% probability to win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.76 for Hiroshima and just 0.63 for Iwaki. The market suggests a 66% chance for Over 2.5 goals, indicating a potential for scoring.
However, the confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty. Iwaki's recent form shows a win and a loss, which could impact their performance. Additionally, the 44% chance for both teams to score suggests that while Hiroshima is favored, Iwaki could still find the net.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki: model vs market
| Source | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Iwaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 14% | 5% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 10% |
| Published | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Edge | +9% | -4% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below the model: +8.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Iwaki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Sanfrecce Hiroshima / Iwaki)
- 1.41 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Sanfrecce Hiroshima / Iwaki)
- 0.60 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals. Columns: Iwaki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 75% | 1.34 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.06 | |
| Iwaki | 9% | 11.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.25 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Iwaki) | 25% | 3.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win by 2+ | 62% | 1.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Iwaki recent form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W 1D 1L
Iwaki
1W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home only, Iwaki away only.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1 · draws 0 · Iwaki 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-10 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 4-0 | Iwaki | Emperor Cup |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United 2026-10-07
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama FC — team news & stats 2026-10-07
- Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats 2026-10-07
- FC Tokyo v Shonan Bellmare — match page 2026-10-07
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2026-10-07
- Yokohama F. Marinos v Kyoto Sangyo University — match page 2026-10-07
- Fagiano Okayama v JEF United Chiba — match page 2026-10-07
- Gainare Tottori vs Tokyo Verdy 2026-10-07