FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare preview
FC Tokyo faces Shonan Bellmare in the Emperor Cup, with a 61% probability for a home win according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 16% chance of occurring. FC Tokyo's expected goals stand at 1.70, while Shonan Bellmare's is only 0.59.
However, the match could see different outcomes if Shonan Bellmare improves their recent form, which includes a win and a loss in their last two matches. The market suggests a 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance for both teams to score, indicating that while FC Tokyo is favored, surprises can happen in cup competitions.
FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare: model vs market
| Source | FC Tokyo | Draw | Shonan Bellmare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 25% | 11% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Published | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Edge | +4% | +2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Tokyo below the model: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Tokyo and Shonan Bellmare expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (FC Tokyo / Shonan Bellmare)
- 1.09 / 0.85
- Defence rating (FC Tokyo / Shonan Bellmare)
- 0.65 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Tokyo goals. Columns: Shonan Bellmare goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Shonan Bellmare | 16% | 6.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.68 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Tokyo or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Shonan Bellmare) | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Tokyo and Shonan Bellmare recent form
FC Tokyo
5W 1D 0L
Shonan Bellmare
2W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Tokyo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 6.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Tokyo at home only, Shonan Bellmare away only.
FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: FC Tokyo 2 · draws 3 · Shonan Bellmare 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Shonan Bellmare | 2-2 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2025-05-21 | Shonan Bellmare | 1-0 | FC Tokyo | J-League Cup |
| 2025-03-08 | FC Tokyo | 0-0 | Shonan Bellmare | J1 League |
| 2024-11-03 | FC Tokyo | 0-2 | Shonan Bellmare | J1 League |
| 2024-06-22 | Shonan Bellmare | 0-1 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2023-12-03 | Shonan Bellmare | 0-1 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2023-04-09 | FC Tokyo | 2-2 | Shonan Bellmare | J1 League |
| 2022-10-08 | FC Tokyo | 0-2 | Shonan Bellmare | J1 League |
| 2022-06-18 | Shonan Bellmare | 2-0 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
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