Kawasaki Frontale vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki Prediction & Betting Tips 07/10/2026

Kawasaki Frontale vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki preview

Kawasaki Frontale faces Tegevajaro Miyazaki in the Emperor Cup, with a 64% probability for a Kawasaki win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which reflects their expected goals of 2.08 compared to Miyazaki's 0.88.

While the market suggests a strong chance for Kawasaki, the recent form shows Tegevajaro Miyazaki coming off a win, which could influence the match. Additionally, both teams have a 52% chance of scoring, indicating that an unexpected performance from Miyazaki could alter the outcome.

Kawasaki Frontale vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kawasaki Frontale	Draw	Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Model	64%	22%	14%
Market	—	—	—
Published	64%	22%	14%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.88.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kawasaki Frontale and Tegevajaro Miyazaki expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.08Kawasaki Frontale

0.88Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Total expected goals: 2.96
Attack rating (Kawasaki Frontale / Tegevajaro Miyazaki): 1.12 / 0.93
Defence rating (Kawasaki Frontale / Tegevajaro Miyazaki): 0.88 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kawasaki Frontale vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 3.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1 9.8% 10.5% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.2% 9.9% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3 7.8% 6.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 6.5% 5.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Kawasaki Frontale goals. Columns: Tegevajaro Miyazaki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kawasaki Frontale vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kawasaki Frontale vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kawasaki Frontale	64%	1.56
	Draw	22%	4.56
	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	14%	7.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.76
	Under 2.5	43%	2.31
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.92
	No	48%	2.09
Double chance	1X (Kawasaki Frontale or draw)	86%	1.16
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Tegevajaro Miyazaki)	36%	2.78
Handicap -1	Kawasaki Frontale win by 2+	41%	2.45
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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