Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki preview
Shimizu S-pulse hosts V-varen Nagasaki in the Emperor Cup with a 45% chance of winning according to 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 15% probability. However, the match could see a different outcome if V-varen Nagasaki improves their attack, as they have an expected goals figure of 0.76 compared to Shimizu's 1.46.
Both teams to score has a probability of 42%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 38%. Recent form shows Shimizu S-pulse with three wins in their last five matches, while V-varen Nagasaki has also won three of their last five. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki: model vs market
| Source | Shimizu S-pulse | Draw | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 27% |
| Edge | +11% | 0% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Shimizu S-pulse below the model: +10.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Shimizu S-pulse and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Shimizu S-pulse / V-varen Nagasaki)
- 0.66 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Shimizu S-pulse / V-varen Nagasaki)
- 0.80 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shimizu S-pulse goals. Columns: V-varen Nagasaki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shimizu S-pulse | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.38 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shimizu S-pulse or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or V-varen Nagasaki) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shimizu S-pulse win by 2+ | 28% | 3.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Shimizu S-pulse and V-varen Nagasaki recent form
Shimizu S-pulse
3W 1D 2L
V-varen Nagasaki
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shimizu S-pulse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Shimizu S-pulse at home only, V-varen Nagasaki away only.
Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Shimizu S-pulse 4 · draws 3 · V-varen Nagasaki 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Shimizu S-pulse | 1-2 | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League |
| 2026-04-05 | V-varen Nagasaki | 0-3 | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| 2024-09-07 | Shimizu S-pulse | 1-1 | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League |
| 2024-03-10 | V-varen Nagasaki | 4-1 | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
| 2023-07-01 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3-2 | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League |
| 2023-03-04 | V-varen Nagasaki | 1-1 | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
| 2018-12-01 | V-varen Nagasaki | 4-4 | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| 2018-04-11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 0-1 | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League |
| 2016-08-11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 2-0 | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League |
| 2016-03-06 | V-varen Nagasaki | 0-3 | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
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