Urawa vs Omiya Ardija preview
In the Emperor Cup fixture, Urawa faces Omiya Ardija with a 51% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which has an 11% chance of occurring. Urawa's recent form shows six consecutive matches with four wins, while Omiya Ardija has won one of their last two games.
The market suggests a 54% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance for both teams to score. Urawa has expected goals of 1.92, compared to Omiya Ardija's 0.93. A draw could disrupt the expected outcome, as the model gives it a 26% probability. Overall, Urawa appears favored but the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Urawa vs Omiya Ardija: model vs market
| Source | Urawa | Draw | Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | +11% | -2% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Urawa below the model: +11.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Urawa and Omiya Ardija expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Urawa / Omiya Ardija)
- 1.08 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Urawa / Omiya Ardija)
- 0.97 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Urawa vs Omiya Ardija score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Urawa goals. Columns: Omiya Ardija goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Urawa vs Omiya Ardija goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Urawa vs Omiya Ardija
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Urawa | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Omiya Ardija | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Urawa or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Omiya Ardija) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Urawa win by 2+ | 36% | 2.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Urawa and Omiya Ardija recent form
Urawa
5W 0D 1L
Omiya Ardija
1W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Urawa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Urawa at home only, Omiya Ardija away only.
Urawa vs Omiya Ardija head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Urawa 5 · draws 3 · Omiya Ardija 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Urawa | 2-2 | Omiya Ardija | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2017-08-05 | Urawa | 2-2 | Omiya Ardija | J1 League |
| 2017-04-30 | Omiya Ardija | 1-0 | Urawa | J1 League |
| 2016-07-17 | Urawa | 2-2 | Omiya Ardija | J1 League |
| 2016-05-08 | Omiya Ardija | 0-1 | Urawa | J1 League |
| 2014-08-30 | Urawa | 4-0 | Omiya Ardija | J1 League |
| 2014-05-10 | Omiya Ardija | 0-2 | Urawa | J1 League |
| 2014-04-02 | Urawa | 2-1 | Omiya Ardija | J-League Cup |
| 2013-10-05 | Urawa | 4-0 | Omiya Ardija | J1 League |
| 2013-04-20 | Omiya Ardija | 1-0 | Urawa | J1 League |
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