Ballkani vs Drita: model vs market
| Source | Ballkani | Draw | Drita |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 33% | 34% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 41% | 30% | 30% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Ballkani and Drita expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (Ballkani / Drita)
- 0.96 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Ballkani / Drita)
- 0.86 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ballkani vs Drita score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ballkani goals. Columns: Drita goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ballkani vs Drita goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ballkani vs Drita
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballkani | 41% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Drita | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ballkani or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Drita) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ballkani win by 2+ | 13% | 7.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Ballkani and Drita recent form
Ballkani
3W 1D 2L
Drita
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ballkani at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Drita away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ballkani at home only, Drita away only.
Ballkani vs Drita head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ballkani 3 · draws 2 · Drita 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Drita | 2-0 | Ballkani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-03-15 | Ballkani | 3-0 | Drita | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-11-30 | Drita | 2-3 | Ballkani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-09-25 | Ballkani | 2-0 | Drita | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-05-08 | Ballkani | 1-1 | Drita | Superliga |
| 2025-03-11 | Drita | 2-0 | Ballkani | Superliga |
| 2024-11-30 | Ballkani | 2-3 | Drita | Superliga |
| 2024-09-22 | Drita | 1-0 | Ballkani | Superliga |
| 2024-04-20 | Ballkani | 2-2 | Drita | Superliga |
| 2024-02-21 | Drita | 1-0 | Ballkani | Superliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Gjilani v Drenica Skënderaj — match page 2026-10-13
- Feronikeli vs Llapi — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Dukagjini vs Vushtrria 2026-10-14
- Malisheva v Prishtina — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Ballkani, next: Ballkani vs Prishtina prediction
- Drita, next: Llapi – Drita, 2026-10-17