Dukagjini vs Vushtrria preview
In the Kosovo Superliga fixture between Dukagjini and Vushtrria, Dukagjini has a 60% chance to win, while Vushtrria sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Dukagjini has shown better recent form, with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, compared to Vushtrria's 6 consecutive losses.
The model suggests a 49% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score. Dukagjini's expected goals stand at 1.81, while Vushtrria's is only 0.82. A low-scoring match could occur if Vushtrria manages to improve their performance, as their recent form has been poor.
Dukagjini vs Vushtrria: model vs market
| Source | Dukagjini | Draw | Vushtrria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 25% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Dukagjini and Vushtrria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Dukagjini / Vushtrria)
- 0.88 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Dukagjini / Vushtrria)
- 0.82 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dukagjini vs Vushtrria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dukagjini goals. Columns: Vushtrria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dukagjini vs Vushtrria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dukagjini vs Vushtrria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dukagjini | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Vushtrria | 16% | 6.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dukagjini or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Vushtrria) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dukagjini win by 2+ | 35% | 2.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dukagjini and Vushtrria recent form
Dukagjini
3W 2D 1L
Vushtrria
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dukagjini at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Vushtrria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dukagjini at home only, Vushtrria away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Ballkani vs Drita 2026-10-13
- Gjilani v Drenica Skënderaj — match page 2026-10-13
- Feronikeli vs Llapi — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Malisheva v Prishtina — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Dukagjini, previous: Prishtina vs Dukagjini: odds and pick
- Vushtrria, previous: Vushtrria – Gjilani, 2026-10-10