Feronikeli vs Llapi preview
In the Kosovo Superliga fixture between Feronikeli and Llapi, the 1X2 probabilities show Feronikeli at 42%, Llapi at 32%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is 63%, while both teams to score stands at 65%.
Feronikeli's expected goals are 1.73, compared to Llapi's 1.50. Recent form indicates Feronikeli has won 1 of their last 6 matches, while Llapi has won only 1 of their last 5. This could affect performance, making the predicted outcomes uncertain.
Feronikeli vs Llapi: model vs market
| Source | Feronikeli | Draw | Llapi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Feronikeli and Llapi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Feronikeli / Llapi)
- 0.78 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Feronikeli / Llapi)
- 1.19 / 1.43
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Feronikeli vs Llapi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Feronikeli goals. Columns: Llapi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Feronikeli vs Llapi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Feronikeli vs Llapi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feronikeli | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Llapi | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Feronikeli or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Llapi) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Feronikeli win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Feronikeli and Llapi recent form
Feronikeli
2W 0D 4L
Llapi
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Feronikeli at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Llapi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Feronikeli at home only, Llapi away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Ballkani vs Drita 2026-10-13
- Gjilani v Drenica Skënderaj — match page 2026-10-13
- Dukagjini vs Vushtrria 2026-10-14
- Malisheva v Prishtina — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Feronikeli, previous: Drenica Skënderaj v Feronikeli analysis
- Llapi, previous: Llapi vs Ballkani: odds and pick