Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj: model vs market
| Source | Gjilani | Draw | Drenica Skënderaj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gjilani and Drenica Skënderaj expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Gjilani / Drenica Skënderaj)
- 1.02 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Gjilani / Drenica Skënderaj)
- 0.99 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gjilani goals. Columns: Drenica Skënderaj goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gjilani | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Drenica Skënderaj | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gjilani or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Drenica Skënderaj) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gjilani win by 2+ | 25% | 3.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gjilani and Drenica Skënderaj recent form
Gjilani
2W 2D 2L
Drenica Skënderaj
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gjilani at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Drenica Skënderaj away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gjilani at home only, Drenica Skënderaj away only.
Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Gjilani 1 · draws 0 · Drenica Skënderaj 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Drenica Skënderaj | 2-1 | Gjilani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-03-14 | Gjilani | 0-1 | Drenica Skënderaj | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-11-29 | Drenica Skënderaj | 0-1 | Gjilani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-09-25 | Gjilani | 0-1 | Drenica Skënderaj | Kosovo Superliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Ballkani vs Drita 2026-10-13