Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj: model vs market
| Source | Gjilani | Draw | Drenica Skënderaj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Gjilani and Drenica Skënderaj expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.73
- Attack rating (Gjilani / Drenica Skënderaj)
- 0.92 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Gjilani / Drenica Skënderaj)
- 0.95 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gjilani goals. Columns: Drenica Skënderaj goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gjilani | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Drenica Skënderaj | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gjilani or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Drenica Skënderaj) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gjilani win by 2+ | 16% | 6.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Gjilani and Drenica Skënderaj recent form
Gjilani
1W 2D 3L
Drenica Skënderaj
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gjilani at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Drenica Skënderaj away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gjilani at home only, Drenica Skënderaj away only.
Gjilani vs Drenica Skënderaj head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gjilani 4 · draws 2 · Drenica Skënderaj 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Drenica Skënderaj | 2-1 | Gjilani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-03-14 | Gjilani | 0-1 | Drenica Skënderaj | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-11-29 | Drenica Skënderaj | 0-1 | Gjilani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-09-25 | Gjilani | 0-1 | Drenica Skënderaj | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2023-04-23 | Gjilani | 1-0 | Drenica Skënderaj | Superliga |
| 2023-02-22 | Drenica Skënderaj | 1-2 | Gjilani | Superliga |
| 2022-10-20 | Gjilani | 0-2 | Drenica Skënderaj | Superliga |
| 2022-08-24 | Drenica Skënderaj | 0-0 | Gjilani | Superliga |
| 2022-04-09 | Gjilani | 5-0 | Drenica Skënderaj | Superliga |
| 2022-02-12 | Drenica Skënderaj | 1-1 | Gjilani | Superliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Ballkani vs Drita 2026-10-13
- Feronikeli vs Llapi — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Dukagjini vs Vushtrria 2026-10-14
- Malisheva v Prishtina — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Gjilani, next: Gjilani vs Feronikeli: odds and pick
- Drenica Skënderaj, next: Dukagjini – Drenica Skënderaj, 2026-10-19