Dukagjini vs Drenica Skënderaj preview
Dukagjini faces Drenica Skënderaj with a 44% chance to win compared to Drenica Skënderaj's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which suggests a low-scoring match. However, the 40% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score indicate that an unexpected offensive display could change the outcome.
Dukagjini's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws, while Drenica Skënderaj has only 1 win in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.33 for Dukagjini and 0.95 for Drenica Skënderaj, reflecting a stronger attacking performance from Dukagjini. Despite this, the confidence grade is C, highlighting that surprises can happen in football.
Dukagjini vs Drenica Skënderaj: model vs market
| Source | Dukagjini | Draw | Drenica Skënderaj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 31% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 45% | 31% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Dukagjini and Drenica Skënderaj expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.19
- Attack rating (Dukagjini / Drenica Skënderaj)
- 0.82 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Dukagjini / Drenica Skënderaj)
- 0.69 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dukagjini vs Drenica Skënderaj score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dukagjini goals. Columns: Drenica Skënderaj goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dukagjini vs Drenica Skënderaj goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dukagjini vs Drenica Skënderaj
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dukagjini | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Drenica Skënderaj | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dukagjini or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Drenica Skënderaj) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dukagjini win by 2+ | 21% | 4.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dukagjini and Drenica Skënderaj recent form
Dukagjini
3W 2D 1L
Drenica Skënderaj
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dukagjini at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Drenica Skënderaj away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dukagjini at home only, Drenica Skënderaj away only.
Dukagjini vs Drenica Skënderaj head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Dukagjini 1 · draws 3 · Drenica Skënderaj 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Drenica Skënderaj | 0-0 | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-05-03 | Dukagjini | 0-1 | Drenica Skënderaj | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-03-08 | Drenica Skënderaj | 2-2 | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-11-23 | Dukagjini | 3-0 | Drenica Skënderaj | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-09-21 | Drenica Skënderaj | 1-1 | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Llapi vs Drita — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Malisheva vs Vushtrria 2026-10-18
- Gjilani v Feronikeli — match page 2026-10-18
- Ballkani vs Prishtina — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Dukagjini, previous: Dukagjini vs Vushtrria: odds and pick
- Drenica Skënderaj, previous: Gjilani – Drenica Skënderaj, 2026-10-13