Llapi vs Drita: model vs market
| Source | Llapi | Draw | Drita |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 28% | 55% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Published | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Edge | -8% | +1% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Drita below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Llapi and Drita expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (Llapi / Drita)
- 0.83 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Llapi / Drita)
- 1.33 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Llapi vs Drita score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Llapi goals. Columns: Drita goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Llapi vs Drita goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Llapi vs Drita
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llapi | 24% | 4.22 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Drita | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Llapi or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Drita) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Drita win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Llapi and Drita recent form
Llapi
1W 1D 4L
Drita
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Llapi at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
Drita away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Llapi at home only, Drita away only.
Llapi vs Drita head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Llapi 3 · draws 1 · Drita 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Drita | 5-3 | Llapi | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-04-26 | Drita | 3-0 | Llapi | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-02-22 | Llapi | 0-2 | Drita | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-02-10 | Drita | 1-2 | Llapi | Cup |
| 2025-11-02 | Drita | 1-0 | Llapi | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-09-01 | Llapi | 1-1 | Drita | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-05-04 | Drita | 1-0 | Llapi | Superliga |
| 2025-03-08 | Llapi | 1-0 | Drita | Superliga |
| 2024-11-25 | Drita | 3-1 | Llapi | Superliga |
| 2024-09-15 | Llapi | 1-0 | Drita | Superliga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Malisheva vs Vushtrria 2026-10-18
- Gjilani v Feronikeli — match page 2026-10-18
- Ballkani vs Prishtina — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Dukagjini vs Drenica Skënderaj 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Llapi, previous: Feronikeli v Llapi analysis
- Drita, previous: Ballkani vs Drita prediction