Ogre United vs Riga preview
Ogre United faces Riga with a 1X2 probability of 18% for Ogre United, 24% for a draw, and 58% for Riga. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs at a 10% chance. The expected goals show Ogre United at 1.03 and Riga at 1.96, indicating a strong advantage for Riga.
Ogre United's recent form is L-L-L-W-L-D, while Riga has performed better with D-W-D-W-W-W. Both teams to score has a 56% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 58%. If Ogre United can improve their performance and secure an early goal, it could challenge the predictions.
Ogre United vs Riga: model vs market
| Source | Ogre United | Draw | Riga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ogre United and Riga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Ogre United / Riga)
- 0.85 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Ogre United / Riga)
- 1.50 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ogre United vs Riga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ogre United goals. Columns: Riga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ogre United vs Riga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ogre United vs Riga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 18% | 5.50 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Riga | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ogre United or draw) | 42% | 2.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Riga) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win by 2+ | 36% | 2.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ogre United and Riga recent form
Ogre United
1W 1D 4L
Riga
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ogre United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-10
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 2.12
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 4 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Riga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 2.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 24 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ogre United at home only, Riga away only.
Ogre United vs Riga head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ogre United 0 · draws 0 · Riga 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Riga | 4-1 | Ogre United | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-13 | Ogre United | 1-4 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-22 | Riga | 4-0 | Ogre United | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- FK Liepaja v Super Nova — match page 2026-11-01
- Auda vs FS Jelgava — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2026-11-01
- Rīgas FS v Grobiņa — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Ogre United, previous: Ogre United – Auda, 2026-10-25
- Riga, previous: Grobiņa vs Riga prediction
- Riga, next: Riga vs FK Jablonec prediction