FK Liepaja vs Super Nova preview
FK Liepaja faces Super Nova with a 58% chance of winning, while Super Nova has only a 15% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects FK Liepaja's expected goals of 1.59 compared to Super Nova's 0.68.
However, the match could be affected by the recent form of both teams. FK Liepaja has drawn three of their last five matches, while Super Nova has lost four of their last five. Both teams to score stands at 40%, and Over 2.5 goals is also at 40%, indicating a potential for a low-scoring game. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova: model vs market
| Source | FK Liepaja | Draw | Super Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 25% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 63% | 25% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.64.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FK Liepaja and Super Nova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (FK Liepaja / Super Nova)
- 0.96 / 0.63
- Defence rating (FK Liepaja / Super Nova)
- 0.80 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Liepaja goals. Columns: Super Nova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Super Nova | 12% | 8.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.51 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Liepaja or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Super Nova) | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win by 2+ | 37% | 2.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Liepaja and Super Nova recent form
FK Liepaja
1W 4D 1L
Super Nova
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Liepaja at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
Super Nova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-8
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Liepaja at home only, Super Nova away only.
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: FK Liepaja 4 · draws 1 · Super Nova 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Super Nova | 1-2 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-12 | FK Liepaja | 2-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-23 | Super Nova | 1-2 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-11-09 | Super Nova | 3-0 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-25 | FK Liepaja | 0-3 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-17 | Super Nova | 1-3 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-25 | FK Liepaja | 2-2 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Auda vs FS Jelgava — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2026-11-01
- Rīgas FS v Grobiņa — match page 2026-11-01
- Ogre United vs Riga — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- FK Liepaja, previous: FK Liepaja vs Tukums: odds and pick
- Super Nova, previous: Super Nova v Rīgas FS analysis