Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja preview
In the upcoming match between Grobiņa and FK Liepaja, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a 54% chance of an FK Liepaja win compared to 22% for Grobiņa. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.19 for Grobiņa and 1.97 for FK Liepaja.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 61%, indicating a strong possibility of an entertaining match. However, Grobiņa's recent form shows 2 losses and only 1 win in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Meanwhile, FK Liepaja has had a mixed run with 2 draws and 1 win in their last 5, which might affect their chances of securing a victory.
Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja: model vs market
| Source | Grobiņa | Draw | FK Liepaja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Market | 29% | 25% | 45% |
| Published | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.19.
- The market prices FK Liepaja below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Liepaja, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grobiņa | 3.05 | 3.08 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.58 | +0.02 |
| FK Liepaja | 1.97 | 1.98 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Grobiņa and FK Liepaja expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Grobiņa / FK Liepaja)
- 0.79 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Grobiņa / FK Liepaja)
- 1.45 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Grobiņa goals. Columns: FK Liepaja goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grobiņa | 27% | 3.64 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| FK Liepaja | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Grobiņa or draw) | 52% | 1.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Liepaja) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Grobiņa and FK Liepaja recent form
Grobiņa
1W 2D 3L
FK Liepaja
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Grobiņa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-7
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 6 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
FK Liepaja away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-9
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Grobiņa at home only, FK Liepaja away only.
Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Grobiņa 2 · draws 1 · FK Liepaja 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | FK Liepaja | 3-1 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-16 | Grobiņa | 1-0 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-28 | FK Liepaja | 1-1 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2025-09-21 | Grobiņa | 0-1 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-30 | FK Liepaja | 2-0 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-10 | Grobiņa | 2-0 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-03-16 | FK Liepaja | 4-1 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Super Nova v BFC Daugavpils — match page 2026-11-08
- Tukums vs Auda — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Riga vs Rīgas FS 2026-11-08
- FS Jelgava v Ogre United — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Grobiņa, previous: Rīgas FS v Grobiņa analysis
- FK Liepaja, previous: FK Liepaja vs Super Nova: odds and pick