Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa preview
In the fixture between Rīgas FS and Grobiņa, Rīgas FS holds an 80% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 12%. The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 47%. Rīgas FS has a strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Grobiņa has mixed results with 3 wins in their last 5.
Despite Rīgas FS's dominance in head-to-head encounters, winning all 7 previous matches against Grobiņa, the confidence grade is C. This indicates potential uncertainty, as Grobiņa's recent win could suggest they might perform better than expected. If Grobiņa can improve their scoring, the prediction could be challenged.
Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa: model vs market
| Source | Rīgas FS | Draw | Grobiņa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 82% | 13% | 5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 82% | 13% | 5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rīgas FS and Grobiņa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.52
- Attack rating (Rīgas FS / Grobiņa)
- 1.51 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Rīgas FS / Grobiņa)
- 0.66 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rīgas FS goals. Columns: Grobiņa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 82% | 1.22 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.88 | |
| Grobiņa | 5% | 19.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rīgas FS or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Grobiņa) | 18% | 5.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win by 2+ | 63% | 1.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Rīgas FS and Grobiņa recent form
Rīgas FS
5W 1D 0L
Grobiņa
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rīgas FS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-4-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 3.06
- Goals against / match
- 0.82
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 26 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 12 penalties (92%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grobiņa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-10
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.59
- Goals against / match
- 2.06
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Rīgas FS at home only, Grobiņa away only.
Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Rīgas FS 7 · draws 0 · Grobiņa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Rīgas FS | 6-1 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-13 | Grobiņa | 1-3 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-22 | Grobiņa | 0-1 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-10-26 | Rīgas FS | 5-0 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-03 | Grobiņa | 2-3 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-31 | Rīgas FS | 6-0 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-15 | Grobiņa | 1-4 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- FK Liepaja v Super Nova — match page 2026-11-01
- Auda vs FS Jelgava — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2026-11-01
- Ogre United vs Riga — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Rīgas FS, previous: Super Nova v Rīgas FS analysis
- Grobiņa, previous: Grobiņa vs Riga prediction