Auda vs FS Jelgava preview
In the Virsliga fixture between Auda and FS Jelgava, Auda has a 69% chance of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 13%. Auda's expected goals are 2.12, while FS Jelgava's are just 0.73. This disparity suggests Auda is likely to dominate the match.
However, there are factors that could affect this outcome. Both teams to score has a probability of 46%, indicating that while Auda may score, there is a chance FS Jelgava could find the net. Additionally, Auda's recent form shows some inconsistency with two draws, while FS Jelgava has lost five of their last six matches. This could lead to a tighter contest than expected.
Auda vs FS Jelgava: model vs market
| Source | Auda | Draw | FS Jelgava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 21% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 69% | 21% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Auda and FS Jelgava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Auda / FS Jelgava)
- 1.18 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Auda / FS Jelgava)
- 0.80 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Auda vs FS Jelgava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Auda goals. Columns: FS Jelgava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Auda vs FS Jelgava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Auda vs FS Jelgava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auda | 69% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.84 | |
| FS Jelgava | 11% | 9.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.15 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Auda or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or FS Jelgava) | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win by 2+ | 45% | 2.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Auda and FS Jelgava recent form
Auda
3W 2D 1L
FS Jelgava
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Auda at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-4
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 19 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FS Jelgava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-7
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Auda at home only, FS Jelgava away only.
Auda vs FS Jelgava head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Auda 4 · draws 2 · FS Jelgava 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | FS Jelgava | 0-1 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-13 | Auda | 1-1 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-21 | FS Jelgava | 2-3 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2025-09-27 | FS Jelgava | 1-1 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2025-07-05 | Auda | 2-0 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-15 | FS Jelgava | 3-1 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2025-03-30 | Auda | 2-0 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- FK Liepaja v Super Nova — match page 2026-11-01
- BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2026-11-01
- Rīgas FS v Grobiņa — match page 2026-11-01
- Ogre United vs Riga — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Auda, previous: Ogre United – Auda, 2026-10-25
- FS Jelgava, previous: FS Jelgava v BFC Daugavpils analysis