FS Jelgava vs Ogre United preview
In the matchup between FS Jelgava and Ogre United, the 1X2 probabilities show FS Jelgava at 49% to win, while Ogre United sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs at a 10% probability. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is 57%, and both teams to score stands at 59%.
FS Jelgava's recent form includes five losses and one draw, while Ogre United has one win in their last six matches. The expected goals for FS Jelgava is 1.75, compared to Ogre United's 1.20. Despite the numbers favoring FS Jelgava, their poor recent form could lead to an unexpected outcome.
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United: model vs market
| Source | FS Jelgava | Draw | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.20.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FS Jelgava, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FS Jelgava | 1.82 | 1.79 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.67 | +0.05 |
| Ogre United | 3.45 | 3.62 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FS Jelgava and Ogre United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (FS Jelgava / Ogre United)
- 0.80 / 0.75
- Defence rating (FS Jelgava / Ogre United)
- 1.25 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FS Jelgava goals. Columns: Ogre United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FS Jelgava vs Ogre United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FS Jelgava | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Ogre United | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FS Jelgava or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Ogre United) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | FS Jelgava win by 2+ | 28% | 3.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FS Jelgava and Ogre United recent form
FS Jelgava
0W 1D 5L
Ogre United
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FS Jelgava at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-11
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.76
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Ogre United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-14
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 2.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 4 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FS Jelgava at home only, Ogre United away only.
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FS Jelgava 2 · draws 0 · Ogre United 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ogre United | 2-3 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-17 | FS Jelgava | 0-2 | Ogre United | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-27 | Ogre United | 0-1 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja 2026-11-08
- Super Nova v BFC Daugavpils — match page 2026-11-08
- Tukums vs Auda — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Riga vs Rīgas FS 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FS Jelgava, previous: Auda vs FS Jelgava prediction
- Ogre United, previous: Ogre United vs Riga: odds and pick