Tukums vs Auda preview
In the Virsliga fixture on 2026-11-08, Auda has a 64% probability of winning against Tukums, who stands at just 13%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which reflects Auda's expected goals of 1.91 compared to Tukums' 0.75. Auda's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Tukums has struggled with 5 losses in their last 6.
While Auda is favored, the match could see a different outcome if Tukums manages to improve their scoring, as both teams to score has a probability of 46%. Additionally, the 50% chance of Over 2.5 goals suggests that a high-scoring game is possible, depending on how both teams perform on the day.
Tukums vs Auda: model vs market
| Source | Tukums | Draw | Auda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 23% | 64% |
| Market | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Published | 18% | 22% | 59% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tukums vs Auda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Auda, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums | 4.40 | 4.47 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.00 |
| Auda | 1.57 | 1.56 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tukums and Auda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Tukums / Auda)
- 0.49 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Tukums / Auda)
- 1.12 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tukums vs Auda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tukums goals. Columns: Auda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tukums vs Auda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tukums vs Auda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tukums | 18% | 5.45 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Auda | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tukums or draw) | 41% | 2.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Auda) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win by 2+ | 39% | 2.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tukums and Auda recent form
Tukums
0W 2D 4L
Auda
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tukums at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 5 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
Auda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-3
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 20 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tukums at home only, Auda away only.
Tukums vs Auda head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Tukums 3 · draws 0 · Auda 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Auda | 3-0 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-17 | Tukums | 2-1 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-26 | Auda | 2-1 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2025-11-02 | Auda | 0-1 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-10 | Tukums | 1-0 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-13 | Tukums | 2-4 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-18 | Auda | 2-0 | Tukums | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja 2026-11-08
- Super Nova v BFC Daugavpils — match page 2026-11-08
- Riga vs Rīgas FS 2026-11-08
- FS Jelgava v Ogre United — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Tukums, previous: BFC Daugavpils – Tukums, 2026-11-01
- Auda, previous: Auda vs FS Jelgava prediction