Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils preview
In the upcoming match between Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils, the 1X2 probabilities show BFC Daugavpils at 50% to win, while Super Nova sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% chance. Super Nova's recent form is D-L-L-L-W-L, contrasting with BFC Daugavpils, who have a stronger record of W-W-W-W-D-L.
While BFC Daugavpils has a higher expected goals figure of 1.37 compared to Super Nova's 0.75, the match could deviate from the forecast if Super Nova improves their performance or if BFC Daugavpils underperforms. The chances of Over 2.5 goals are at 36%, and both teams to score stands at 41%, indicating a potential for a low-scoring affair.
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils: model vs market
| Source | Super Nova | Draw | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 30% | 50% |
| Market | 24% | 25% | 50% |
| Published | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils odds movement
Median bookmaker price on BFC Daugavpils, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | 3.60 | 3.71 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.54 | +0.00 |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.80 | 1.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Super Nova / BFC Daugavpils)
- 0.77 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Super Nova / BFC Daugavpils)
- 1.14 / 0.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Super Nova goals. Columns: BFC Daugavpils goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 23% | 4.34 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| BFC Daugavpils | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.46 |
| No | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Super Nova or draw) | 50% | 2.01 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or BFC Daugavpils) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win by 2+ | 25% | 3.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils recent form
Super Nova
1W 1D 4L
BFC Daugavpils
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Super Nova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-10
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
BFC Daugavpils away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-6
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Super Nova at home only, BFC Daugavpils away only.
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Super Nova 2 · draws 5 · BFC Daugavpils 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Super Nova | 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-16 | BFC Daugavpils | 0-0 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-27 | BFC Daugavpils | 0-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-10-25 | BFC Daugavpils | 2-2 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-02 | Super Nova | 1-1 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-01 | Super Nova | 4-1 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-15 | BFC Daugavpils | 1-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja 2026-11-08
- Tukums vs Auda — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Riga vs Rīgas FS 2026-11-08
- FS Jelgava v Ogre United — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Super Nova, previous: FK Liepaja vs Super Nova: odds and pick
- BFC Daugavpils, previous: BFC Daugavpils – Tukums, 2026-11-01