Riga vs Rīgas FS preview
In the upcoming match between Riga and Rīgas FS, the 1X2 probabilities suggest Riga has a 38% chance to win, while Rīgas FS stands at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 7% probability. Recent form shows Riga has drawn or won in their last six matches, while Rīgas FS has won five of their last six, indicating a competitive edge.
The expected goals are 1.09 for Riga and 1.45 for Rīgas FS, which could point to a close match. However, the model indicates a 52% chance for both teams to score, suggesting that a low-scoring game may not be guaranteed. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Riga vs Rīgas FS: model vs market
| Source | Riga | Draw | Rīgas FS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 29% | 45% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Riga vs Rīgas FS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Riga, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 2.15 | 2.21 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.49 | +0.01 |
| Rīgas FS | 2.75 | 2.73 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Riga and Rīgas FS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Riga / Rīgas FS)
- 1.07 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Riga / Rīgas FS)
- 0.75 / 0.60
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Riga vs Rīgas FS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Riga goals. Columns: Rīgas FS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Riga vs Rīgas FS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Riga vs Rīgas FS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 37% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Rīgas FS | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Riga or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Rīgas FS) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win by 2+ | 10% | 9.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Riga and Rīgas FS recent form
Riga
2W 4D 0L
Rīgas FS
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Riga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 13-4-0
- Win rate
- 76%
- Goals for / match
- 2.82
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 25 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rīgas FS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 15-1-1
- Win rate
- 88%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.59
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 27 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.9 on the road.
- They have kept 18 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 12 penalties (92%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Riga at home only, Rīgas FS away only.
Riga vs Rīgas FS head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Riga 3 · draws 3 · Rīgas FS 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Rīgas FS | 3-3 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-17 | Riga | 2-1 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-28 | Rīgas FS | 3-3 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2025-11-07 | Riga | 3-4 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-09-25 | Rīgas FS | 0-0 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-18 | Riga | 3-1 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-26 | Rīgas FS | 0-1 | Riga | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja 2026-11-08
- Super Nova v BFC Daugavpils — match page 2026-11-08
- Tukums vs Auda — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- FS Jelgava v Ogre United — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Riga, previous: Riga vs FK Jablonec prediction
- Riga, next: Kauno Žalgiris – Riga, 2026-11-26
- Rīgas FS, previous: Rīgas FS v Grobiņa analysis