BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums preview
BFC Daugavpils has a 66% chance to win against Tukums, who has only a 9% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 20% probability. BFC Daugavpils has been in better recent form, with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Tukums has 1 win and 3 draws in the same period.
However, the match could deviate from expectations if Tukums manages to improve their scoring, as they have only 0.44 expected goals. The chances of Over 2.5 goals are 34%, and both teams to score stands at 29%. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain.
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums: model vs market
| Source | BFC Daugavpils | Draw | Tukums |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 25% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 66% | 25% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (BFC Daugavpils / Tukums)
- 0.88 / 0.54
- Defence rating (BFC Daugavpils / Tukums)
- 0.63 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: BFC Daugavpils goals. Columns: Tukums goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BFC Daugavpils | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Tukums | 9% | 11.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.40 |
| No | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (BFC Daugavpils or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Tukums) | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win by 2+ | 38% | 2.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums recent form
BFC Daugavpils
3W 2D 1L
Tukums
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
BFC Daugavpils at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-6
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 0.82
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tukums away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-5-12
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: BFC Daugavpils at home only, Tukums away only.
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: BFC Daugavpils 3 · draws 3 · Tukums 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | BFC Daugavpils | 2-0 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2026-06-12 | Tukums | 1-1 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-21 | Tukums | 1-1 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-30 | Tukums | 0-1 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-21 | BFC Daugavpils | 1-2 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-30 | Tukums | 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2025-03-07 | BFC Daugavpils | 3-0 | Tukums | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- FK Liepaja v Super Nova — match page 2026-11-01
- Auda vs FS Jelgava — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Rīgas FS v Grobiņa — match page 2026-11-01
- Ogre United vs Riga — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- BFC Daugavpils, previous: FS Jelgava v BFC Daugavpils analysis
- Tukums, previous: FK Liepaja vs Tukums: odds and pick