Banga vs Šiauliai preview
In the A Lyga fixture between Banga and Šiauliai, the 1X2 probabilities show Banga at 64% to win, while Šiauliai has just a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 13%. Banga's expected goals stand at 1.95, compared to Šiauliai's 0.77, indicating a significant attacking advantage for Banga.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Banga's last five matches include 1 win and 3 losses, while Šiauliai has 1 win in their last six. With both teams to score at 47% and Over 2.5 goals at 51%, there is potential for surprises. If Banga's form doesn't improve, it could lead to a different result than expected.
Banga vs Šiauliai: model vs market
| Source | Banga | Draw | Šiauliai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 15% |
| Published | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.77.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Banga vs Šiauliai odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Banga, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banga | 1.36 | 1.41 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.45 | 4.15 | -0.30 |
| Šiauliai | 6.50 | 6.00 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Banga and Šiauliai expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Banga / Šiauliai)
- 0.95 / 0.62
- Defence rating (Banga / Šiauliai)
- 1.02 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Banga vs Šiauliai score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Banga goals. Columns: Šiauliai goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Banga vs Šiauliai goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Banga vs Šiauliai
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Banga | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Šiauliai | 14% | 6.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Banga or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Šiauliai) | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Banga win by 2+ | 40% | 2.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Banga and Šiauliai recent form
Banga
1W 2D 3L
Šiauliai
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Banga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Šiauliai away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-7-8
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Banga at home only, Šiauliai away only.
Banga vs Šiauliai head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Banga 5 · draws 2 · Šiauliai 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Šiauliai | 1-3 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-30 | Banga | 1-1 | Šiauliai | A Lyga |
| 2026-04-04 | Šiauliai | 0-0 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2026-01-23 | Šiauliai | 1-4 | Banga | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-10-22 | Šiauliai | 1-3 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2025-08-04 | Banga | 1-0 | Šiauliai | A Lyga |
| 2025-05-27 | Banga | 0-1 | Šiauliai | Cup |
| 2025-05-18 | Šiauliai | 3-0 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2025-04-05 | Banga | 1-2 | Šiauliai | A Lyga |
| 2025-01-17 | Banga | 3-1 | Šiauliai | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- TransINVEST Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen — match page 2026-10-24
- Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys 2026-10-25
- Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Banga, previous: Panevėžys v Banga analysis
- Šiauliai, previous: Šiauliai v FK Trakai analysis
- Šiauliai, next: Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai: odds and pick