TransINVEST Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen: model vs market
| Source | TransINVEST Vilnius | Draw | Hegelmann Litauen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Published | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on TransINVEST Vilnius, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 1.60 | 1.33 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.94 | +1.04 |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 4.73 | 7.00 | +2.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
TransINVEST Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (TransINVEST Vilnius / Hegelmann Litauen)
- 1.32 / 0.78
- Defence rating (TransINVEST Vilnius / Hegelmann Litauen)
- 1.00 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: TransINVEST Vilnius goals. Columns: Hegelmann Litauen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for TransINVEST Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 70% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.56 | |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 12% | 8.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (TransINVEST Vilnius or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Hegelmann Litauen) | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | TransINVEST Vilnius win by 2+ | 52% | 1.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
TransINVEST Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen recent form
TransINVEST Vilnius
3W 2D 1L
Hegelmann Litauen
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
TransINVEST Vilnius at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hegelmann Litauen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-8
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: TransINVEST Vilnius at home only, Hegelmann Litauen away only.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: TransINVEST Vilnius 5 · draws 0 · Hegelmann Litauen 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Hegelmann Litauen | 1-2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-29 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 2-1 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-20 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 2-0 | Hegelmann Litauen | Cup |
| 2026-04-04 | Hegelmann Litauen | 3-1 | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2025-05-27 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 0-1 | Hegelmann Litauen | Cup |
| 2024-11-06 | Hegelmann Litauen | 4-1 | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2024-10-19 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 3-2 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| 2024-04-24 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 1-2 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| 2024-03-03 | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-3 | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Banga vs Šiauliai — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys 2026-10-25
- Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- TransINVEST Vilnius, previous: Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius: odds and pick
- TransINVEST Vilnius, next: Panevėžys v TransINVEST Vilnius analysis
- Hegelmann Litauen, previous: FK Zalgiris Vilnius – Hegelmann Litauen, 2026-10-18
- Hegelmann Litauen, next: Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction