Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys preview
In the A Lyga fixture between Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys, the 1X2 probabilities show Panevėžys at 55%, while Džiugas Telšiai sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 55%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%, indicating a potential for a lively match.
Džiugas Telšiai's recent form is concerning with 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Panevėžys has won 4 of their last 6. The expected goals are 1.03 for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.83 for Panevėžys, suggesting a significant disparity in attacking output. If Džiugas Telšiai can improve their form, they might challenge the predicted outcome.
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys: model vs market
| Source | Džiugas Telšiai | Draw | Panevėžys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | -4% | -1% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Panevėžys below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Panevėžys, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Džiugas Telšiai | 2.55 | 2.50 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.30 | -0.20 |
| Panevėžys | 2.33 | 2.45 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Džiugas Telšiai / Panevėžys)
- 0.88 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Džiugas Telšiai / Panevėžys)
- 1.44 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Džiugas Telšiai goals. Columns: Panevėžys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Džiugas Telšiai | 32% | 3.13 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Panevėžys | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Džiugas Telšiai or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Panevėžys) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Panevėžys win by 2+ | 32% | 3.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys recent form
Džiugas Telšiai
0W 2D 4L
Panevėžys
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Džiugas Telšiai at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-5
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Panevėžys away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-10
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Džiugas Telšiai at home only, Panevėžys away only.
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Džiugas Telšiai 4 · draws 4 · Panevėžys 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Panevėžys | 1-1 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-30 | Džiugas Telšiai | 4-0 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2026-04-05 | Panevėžys | 0-1 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
| 2026-01-10 | Panevėžys | 1-1 | Džiugas Telšiai | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-10-26 | Džiugas Telšiai | 1-4 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2025-08-08 | Panevėžys | 0-1 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
| 2025-06-13 | Džiugas Telšiai | 1-1 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2025-04-12 | Panevėžys | 0-1 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
| 2024-10-22 | Panevėžys | 0-0 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
| 2024-10-18 | Panevėžys | 1-0 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- TransINVEST Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen — match page 2026-10-24
- Banga vs Šiauliai — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Džiugas Telšiai, previous: Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius: odds and pick
- Džiugas Telšiai, next: Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai: odds and pick
- Panevėžys, previous: Panevėžys v Banga analysis
- Panevėžys, next: Panevėžys v TransINVEST Vilnius analysis